A new forecast predicting the strongest holiday growth since 2022 — fueled by higher prices.
U.S. retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas, are expected to increase 5.5% year over year between November 1 and December 24, according to Mastercard Economic Institute's annual holiday forecast. The report, based on SpendingPulse Insights, represents in-store and online spending across all forms of payment.
Solid spending is expected to show up across channels. Online sales are expected to rise 11% year over year and in-store sales by 3.9%. The in-store figure is the more surprising one, noted Mastercard, as it would be the strongest showing for physical retail in four years. The increase suggests that stores are holding their ground even as digital continues to scale, the report states.
Prices, however, figure into the holiday growth. Mastercard estimates about half the growth in spending will be due to higher prices.
Other holiday forecasts have struck a similar note. Bain & Company forecasts 4.5% year-over-year growth, with more than half of the nominal sales growth coming from higher inflation.
Consumers arrive in good shape for the season. A strong job market, which ...