KANSAS CITY — Despite CME soybean futures reaching three-year highs in early September and West Texas Intermediate crude oil values hovering near or above $100 per barrel in recent weeks, nearby soybean oil futures, which typically draw support from both markets, largely have remained rangebound since mid-July, trading mostly between the mid-60¢ and mid-70¢ per lb range.
Several factors have helped soybean oil futures decouple from peripheral influences, but the dominant driver has been the fundamental balance between supply and demand. After the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set record-high biomass-based diesel mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and 2027 and signaled that imported feedstocks would continue to receive full credit value through at least 2028, biofuel producers ramped up imports of feedstocks and vegetable oils.
Imports of finished biodiesel also surged as the fuel generated valuable Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which obligated parties can use or sell to comply with the RFS mandates. From January to March, the period before the EPA announced the new mandates, imports of finished biodiesel totaled approximately 39,164 ...